Early best picture predictions are already circulating across the awards circuit;  the same prediction lists industry insiders have been refreshing obsessively at odd hours of the night. A select group of films has begun to separate itself from the pack, sparking debates, hot takes, and mild emotional distress among film students and cinephiles alike.

Here’s a clean breakdown of the films currently dominating the Best Picture conversation:

One Battle After Another

Political, intense, and performed with maximum seriousness. This is the kind of film where characters stare silently into the distance and critics immediately whisper, “Oscar vibes.” Paul Thomas Anderson doing exactly what Paul Thomas Anderson does best, and the Academy is paying attention.

Sinners

Stylish, bold, and unapologetically different. Sinners entered the race with confidence and refused to play it safe and it changed the horror genre. Critics embraced it, audiences connected with it, and now it’s become impossible for awards voters to ignore.

Hamnet

Quiet, restrained, and emotionally devastating in the most elegant way possible. This is the film that makes viewers rethink life choices at 2 a.m. Period drama, but elevated with the kind of prestige that awards bodies love.

Marty Supreme

Actor-driven, dialogue-heavy, and carefully engineered for awards season. If long monologues and intense character work were enough to secure a win on their own, this film would already have its engraving appointment scheduled.

Frankenstein
Dark, atmospheric, and visually striking. Guillermo del Toro delivers a monster story layered with emotion and artistry. The pitch was simple: “A monster movie, but make it meaningful.” The response from awards watchers? Genuine interest.

Several additional titles continue to appear in expanded prediction lists, including Sentimental Value, Train Dreams, and Bugonia. On the bigger end of the scale, visually ambitious projects like Avatar: Fire and Ash and Wicked: For Good are also very much in the conversation — because the Academy rarely resists spectacle.

Best Picture, after all, is never just about which film is “best.” It’s about timing, momentum, industry politics, emotional impact, and who happened to cry during the right screening. Early awards analysis from major industry trackers, including ongoing Oscar forecast discussions led by Variety’s awards coverage, suggests this race is far from settled.

Which means one thing is guaranteed: arguments, group-chat debates, and strong opinions are on the way.

Grab your popcorn, log into Letterboxd, and prepare your hottest take. Oscar season has officially begun.