A new report warns that US colleges and universities may experience a steep drop of up to 150,000 international student enrollments this fall, potentially costing the higher education sector $7 billion in revenue and more than 60,000 jobs nationwide.

The projection, jointly issued by NAFSA: Association of International Educators and JB International, is based on data from the Student and Exchange Visitor Information System (SEVIS) and the State Department, reports Forbes.

It suggests that unless visa issuance rebounds significantly in the coming weeks, restrictive policies and administrative disruptions could severely limit new international student arrivals.

Post-pandemic recovery at risk

International student enrollment had shown signs of recovery after plummeting during the pandemic. According to the Open Doors report from the Institute of International Education, more than 1.12 million international students were enrolled in U.S. colleges and universities in 2023–24 — a record high and around 6% of all college students.

That figure includes those participating in Optional Practical Training (OPT), a program that allows international students to work in the U.S. for up to a year before or after completing their degrees.

Since the pandemic-induced dip in enrollment — a 15% decline — international numbers had grown by about 200,000. But this trend now faces reversal.

What’s driving the decline?

NAFSA cites four key factors contributing to the projected drop:

1. Suspension of Visa Interviews: Visa interviews were paused between 27 May and 18 June — the peak period for processing student visas. Even after resuming, consulates were directed to apply stricter scrutiny to applicants’ social media activity.
2. Limited Appointment Availability: Students in countries such as India, China, Nigeria, and Japan—which together account for a significant share of international students—reported difficulties in securing visa appointments.
3. Downward Visa Trends: F-1 visa issuance was down 12% from January to April 2025, and 22% lower in May compared to the same period in 2024. A steeper decline of up to 90% is anticipated for June, though official data is pending.
4. Visa Bans: A 4 June presidential executive order imposed visa restrictions on nationals from 19 countries, with reports indicating up to 36 more may soon be added.

State-by-state economic fallout

The report includes state-level breakdowns of potential financial losses. California stands to lose over $1 billion, while New York could see comparable losses. Other heavily impacted states may include Texas, Florida, Illinois, Massachusetts, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Ohio—each facing over $200 million in potential losses.

Political backdrop fuelling concerns

Many higher education leaders believe that anti-immigration rhetoric and actions under the Trump administration are creating a hostile environment for international students.

The administration has previously attempted to block elite institutions like Harvard University from enrolling international students and has pushed for stricter immigration policies. These moves have created uncertainty and fear among both prospective and current students.

In May, Joseph Edlow, the administration’s nominee to lead U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services, advocated for ending the Optional Practical Training (OPT) programme — a move that business leaders and educators warn would hurt U.S. competitiveness in attracting global talent.

A call to action

To counter the potential damage, NAFSA is urging the State Department to take two immediate actions:

• Expedite visa processing for F-1, M-1, and J-1 applicants.
• Exempt international students and exchange visitors from the new travel bans while maintaining necessary background checks.

In a statement, Fanta Aw, Executive Director and CEO of NAFSA, called the findings “a clarion call” for urgent intervention.

“This analysis is the first to calculate the potential economic impact of fewer international students on cities and towns across the country,” Aw said. “International students drive innovation, advance America’s global competitiveness, and create opportunities that benefit the nation for generations.”

She warned that the fallout this fall may just be “the tip of the iceberg.”