For decades, from about 1970 to 2015, global temperatures increased at a steady pace of less than 0.2°C per decade. But over the last 10 years, that rate has jumped to roughly 0.35°C per decade, almost twice as fast as before.

According to the Guardian, researchers say this sharp acceleration is largely driven by human-caused carbon pollution, which has already warmed the planet by about 1.4°C compared to preindustrial times.

Climate scientist Stefan Rahmstorf, one of the study’s authors, warned that if the current warming speed continues, the world could permanently exceed the 1.5°C warming limit of the Paris climate agreement before 2030.

Recent extreme temperatures have also been amplified by natural climate patterns such as El Niño, along with solar activity and volcanic effects. To understand the true human impact, scientists filtered out these natural influences from five major global temperature datasets. In every dataset, they found clear evidence that the warming rate began speeding up around 2013 or 2014.

Some experts say the trend is becoming increasingly clear. Zeke Hausfather, a climate scientist at Berkeley Earth who was not involved in the study, said many scientists now agree that global warming has noticeably accelerated in recent years.

However, researchers are still debating how much of the recent surge is due purely to human-caused warming and how much might come from short-term natural variations.

Another factor making temperatures rise faster is a decline in sulfur pollution, which previously helped cool the atmosphere slightly by reflecting sunlight. With cleaner air policies reducing these pollutants, that temporary cooling effect has faded.

Other studies have also found warming speeding up, though with slightly lower estimates. One recent analysis calculated the rate at about 0.27°C per decade, still significantly faster than past decades.

Either way, scientists say the trend is worrying because it pushes the world closer to crossing critical climate thresholds.

According to projections using data from the EU’s Copernicus climate service, the planet could cross the 1.5°C long-term warming threshold as early as this year if temperatures keep rising at the current pace. Other datasets suggest it could happen by 2028 or 2029.

Some scientists caution that the acceleration might still turn out to be temporary. Past events, such as the strong El Niño in 1998, created a short spike in warming that was later followed by a slowdown. Researchers say it will take several more years of data to confirm whether today’s rapid warming represents a permanent shift.

Still, many climate experts warn that warming between 1.5°C and 2°C could push Earth toward dangerous climate tipping points, major changes in natural systems that could unfold over decades or centuries.

Even before those thresholds are reached, the effects are already becoming clearer. Rising temperatures are making heatwaves more intense, storms more powerful, and rainfall heavier.

The last three years have been the hottest three-year period ever recorded, according to the World Meteorological Organization. At the same time, global emissions of planet-warming gases continue to rise, and scientists are concerned that natural carbon-absorbing systems such as forests and oceans may be weakening.

Ultimately, experts say the future depends on one key factor: how quickly the world can cut carbon emissions from fossil fuels to zero.