Nations facing worsening climate disasters will gather in Turkey next month for COP31, but the summit is unlikely to deliver major progress on cutting fossil fuel use.

The UN-backed talks follow deadly heatwaves and fires in Europe, catastrophic floods in Nepal and record global temperatures. An unusually strong El Nino is also expected to approach peak strength, potentially driving global temperatures even higher.

Energy security will add pressure to the talks as the Middle East conflict pushes up oil and gas prices and strains fossil fuel-importing countries.

Turkey is instead seeking support for a voluntary “electrification” pledge aimed at increasing the share of global energy demand met by electricity from around 20% today to 35% by 2035.

“In many ways, the defining contexts for this year’s climate summit will be heat and Hormuz,” said David Waskow of the World Resources Institute, referring to the strategic strait through which around one-fifth of the world’s hydrocarbons passed before the Iran war.

COP31 negotiations will begin in Antalya on 9 November, with Australia’s Climate Minister Chris Bowen leading the talks under an arrangement that saw Turkey and Australia share hosting responsibilities.

Bowen said recent extreme weather events “show climate change is not a future challenge” and that “the costs of inaction are rising”.

Fossil fuel stalemate

Unlike recent COPs that produced agreements on coal and fossil fuels, COP31 is not expected to deliver new binding commitments to reduce fossil fuel use.

More than 100 issues are on the agenda, but many are technical, including indicators to measure progress on climate adaptation.

Countries agreed in 2023 to move away from coal, oil and gas, but efforts to establish concrete targets and timelines have since stalled.

At last year’s COP, fossil fuels were not mentioned by name in the final agreement after oil and gas-producing countries blocked consensus.

Meanwhile, fossil fuel emissions reached record levels in 2025, while the UN warned in September that the 1.5C temperature target will be breached within years.

“No single COP can fix this global crisis, but each takes meaningful steps forward,” UN Climate chief Simon Stiell said.

Pressure for climate finance

Turkey argues countries cannot be expected to transition at the same pace and is promoting voluntary pledges on issues including AI, waste management and energy.

Its electrification proposal has broad support, but critics warn it does not specify how the additional electricity should be generated. Coal currently accounts for around one-third of global electricity generation.

The devastating floods in Nepal are also expected to increase pressure on wealthy countries to provide more funding for climate-related losses and recovery.

“We did not create this crisis, yet we are paying for it,” Nepal’s Prime Minister Balendra Shah said.