Why the lottery system was never the real problem

On 15 March 2026, the member of parliament of Comilla 4, Hasnat Abdullah, raised concerns regarding the quality of education in feeder institutions, referring to the primary and secondary schools.

Education: Lottery
Illustration: TBS

In short, Hasnat blamed this decrease in standards, among other factors, on the lottery-based system which, according to him, does not promote merit.

In response to Hasnat’s comments, the education minister also affirmed his own discontent with the lottery system, and shared that he would consult with the respected stakeholders to review the admission process for the upcoming school year.

Two days later, on 17 March, Education Minister A N M Ehsanul Hoque Milon announced that from the 2027 academic year, students from Class I to Class IX in both public and private schools will be admitted through examinations.

This abrupt decision raised significant backlash from respected academics and members of civil society, who raised concerns about the credibility of such a step without taking into account its long-term implications.

In hopes of understanding the rationale behind such a step and the impact such a policy has on child development, we have interviewed Dr Mohammad Moninoor Roshid, Professor, Institute of Education and Research, Dhaka University, and Dr Moiyen Zalal Chowdhury, Assistant Professor, Department of Economics and Social Sciences, BRAC University.

Another rushed policy

Given the span of time, two days, between the initial discussion in parliament and the announcement of introducing the admission exams, significant questions have been raised about the thought behind such a massive policy shift.

“In Bangladesh’s history, most educational policies have not been based on evidence or concrete research, rather they have been rushed through without proper consultation,” Dr Moninoor Roshid commented with frustration.

He referenced the comments made by Rasheda K Choudhury, executive director of Campaign for Popular Education (CAMPE), who questioned why the system was being scrapped when it was originally introduced to address specific issues in elite schools, concerning the cost, the high levels of inequality, and the excessive dependence on coaching centres.

The education minister had also addressed these issues while announcing the reintroduction of the admission exams, saying, “We are not trying to turn Class I students into neurosurgeons. The tests will be simple and designed to facilitate the admission process,” adding, “There will be no scope for coaching. Parents have no reason to worry.”

However, this assurance has not been acceptable in the wider academic field.

Dr Moiyen Zalal shared, “Research in education, sociology and economics consistently shows that standardised tests tend to reward not only individual ability but also accumulated advantage.” 

According to him, the contents on the question paper cannot be the only variable in assessing merit, recognising the multitudes of other factors and the pressure imposed on the students.

However, Dr Moninoor Roshid does acknowledge Hasnat’s comments and agree to some extent that the lottery system does bear some negative effects, but according to him, those effects only impact the schools as they do not get the exclusive opportunity to admit top students on the merit list.

“It is not the government’s job to uphold the standard of the Viqarunnas, Ideals or the cadet colleges,” said Dr Moninoor.

He further criticised the lack of engagement with the concerned experts in deciding such a policy.

“If the government only consults the partisan wing of the so-called expert panels, there is bound to be no insightful discourse other than a bunch of yeses, as the particular experts are bound to have certain interests.”

The question of integrity

In terms of credibility, research shows that admission tests at such early ages cannot entirely identify a child’s true merit.

Dr Moiyen cited Jean Piaget and Lev Vygotsky, renowned education psychologists, and questioned the very logic behind assessing the merit through tests in the first place.

“Children between the ages of 7 and 10 are still undergoing significant cognitive and social development. Their performance is highly sensitive to environmental factors such as parental support, nutrition, emotional stability, and exposure to learning materials. Therefore, early admission tests are unlikely to capture stable intellectual ability; instead, they measure temporary differences in exposure and preparation,” explained Dr Moiyen.

Global evidence, including studies by OECD and UNICEF, indicates that high-stakes competition at a young age can lead to increased anxiety, reduced intrinsic motivation, and a narrowing of learning strategies towards rote memorisation.

According to Dr Moiyen, the decrease in quality which Hasnat mentioned in parliament is not the result of the lottery system being in place, rather it speaks to a deeper societal issue which cannot be overturned effectively through the introduction of admission tests. Rather, it has a high probability of becoming another exacerbating factor towards inequality. 

A deeper concern

Responding to the hypothetical scenario where education was truly universal, Dr Moiyen responded, “Even if Bangladesh were to achieve universal, high-quality education for all children, admission tests would not automatically become fully fair. While equal access to schooling would reduce disparities, differences in family background, cultural capital, and social networks would continue to shape outcomes.”

From a different perspective, Dr Moninoor shared his views on how to avoid the pitfalls of unequal treatment. Citing the norm in most developed countries, he proposed to only allow lottery admission to children in close vicinity to their respective schools.

Which will solve a wide array of issues of not only certain schools being forced to integrate underprivileged children who they would otherwise ignore, but this will inevitably create an incentive to put special attention to the underperforming institutions across the city.

Moreover, the commute of families across Dhaka city would be reduced to a larger extent. “Reducing the need to commute long distances for schooling will also have positive implications for Dhaka’s unbearable traffic,” he added.

However, he acknowledges that proper monitoring of the localised tenants and sudden restriction and timeframes for relocation to popular school districts are required if this policy is to be implemented.

“There cannot be a scenario where parents suddenly move to Bailey Road just to become a tenant which allows their child to be considered for admission into Viqarunnesa,” emphasised Dr Moninoor.

It is evident from both that the debate is not simply about choosing between lottery and tests. It is about recognising the conditions under which each system operates.

According to Dr Moiyen, in the current Bangladeshi context, reintroducing admission tests without addressing structural inequalities risks transforming education into a system that rewards pre-existing advantage while presenting itself as neutral and merit-based.