A suspected plague-related death at a research centre in Siberia has sparked concern online, but experts say the chances of the disease developing into a global outbreak remain low.

A 28-year-old laboratory technician, Darya Shipilova, died last week after developing pneumonia-like symptoms. She worked at an Anti-Plague Institute in Russia’s Irkutsk region, where researchers study Yersinia pestis, the bacterium that causes plague.

Her exact cause of death has not been officially confirmed, and laboratory tests are reportedly ongoing. Russian media have reported that nearly 200 people were placed in isolation following the incident.

The World Health Organization (WHO) has assessed the risk as moderate to low for Irkutsk, low for Russia as a whole and very low for the WHO European region.

Plague has three main forms: bubonic, pneumonic and septicaemic. Bubonic plague, the most common form, is usually transmitted through infected flea bites. Pneumonic plague can spread between people through respiratory droplets and can become fatal quickly without treatment.

Despite its reputation as a devastating historical disease, experts say modern healthcare and public health systems make a pandemic unlikely.

Antibiotics can effectively treat plague when administered promptly. Unlike Covid-19, pneumonic plague generally becomes transmissible only after symptoms appear, which makes infected people easier to identify, isolate and treat before they infect large numbers of others.

Public health authorities also have established procedures for tracing contacts, monitoring exposed people and providing antibiotics when necessary.

Laboratory transmission is considered extremely rare because specialised facilities typically use strict biosafety measures, including protective equipment, biosafety cabinets and multiple layers of containment.

In an analysis for the BBC, science writer Jasmin Fox-Skelly noted that the conditions that helped plague spread rapidly during the 14th century — including poor sanitation, overcrowding and lengthy trade journeys — are very different from those in much of the modern world.

The plague has not disappeared, however. It remains endemic among some animal populations in parts of Africa, Asia, South America and the US, with occasional human cases and local outbreaks.

Madagascar recorded 2,417 plague cases and 209 deaths during an outbreak in 2017. However, experts say the outbreak was contained, illustrating why plague outbreaks generally remain local rather than developing into global pandemics.

The disease remains a serious public health concern, particularly in areas where access to rapid diagnosis and treatment is limited.

As Oxford University professor Piero Olliaro told the BBC, plague may not affect large numbers of people globally, but “it is an important disease, and so we should not forget that plague exists.”