Years and years passed. Climate activists, the youth, the organisations, the UN’s charters and goals, the COPs eventually came up with new ideas, new thoughts, new plans to make the climate a little bit better for a better tomorrow.

One thing, though, has remained the same, which is renewable energy. Of course, solar and wind turbines are renewable energy. We knew that in school, in that dodgy science textbook we had. Let us not go beyond the 57,321 mile. The question at this point is not whether Bangladesh can afford an energy transition; the question is whether it can afford to keep putting it off, one after another.

Bangladesh has a very particular relationship with ambition. We are excellent at declaring what we intend to do, especially if it’s something that’s going to be of international standing, of developmental importance or of value to the state. Renewable energy has certainly had its day in the sun in this respect. We have policies, we have targets, we have rooftop solar schemes and we have made a number of public commitments to reduce our reliance on traditional fuels. The question that arises when you look beyond the rhetoric and at the actual figures is this: are we actually on track for an energy transition, or have we just got used to talking about an energy transition in the same way as we talk about all the other things that are going on?

My issue is not that Bangladesh hasn’t realised the importance of renewables. They have, recently and definitely. The issue is that that realisation hasn’t led to any real progress at the level that our economic situation requires.

Let’s look at the numbers. In FY2020-21, imported energy was 47.7% of Bangladesh’s primary energy supply. By FY2024-25, that figure had risen to 62.5% (IEEFA). Renewables were at about 2.3% of grid electricity generation in that period. That’s not just an environmental failing. It’s an economy that is increasingly vulnerable to international fuel prices, exchange rate movements and disruption to global supply chains.

We simply cannot continue to view renewables as a ‘nice to have’ climate measure when they are so intimately linked to a number of other issues, including energy security, fiscal stability and the cost of production.

Bangladesh’s reliance on imported fuels is particularly problematic when you look at the economics of power generation. IEEFA’s figures show that the average cost of power generation increased from BDT 6.61 per kWh in FY2020-21 to BDT 11.33 in FY2022-23. The cost of imported fuels and the depreciation of the currency were the primary drivers of this increase, though they were not the only factors. Capacity payments and the cost of peaking power plants also put pressure on the system.

Renewables can’t take away the pressures of everyday life. Solar is intermittent, storage is expensive and the grid has to be able to cope with the varying supply. That said, there is a benefit in terms of generating more of our own electricity from domestic renewables in that it reduces your exposure to the price of imported fuel and provides a certain degree of long-term cost stability.

The issue isn’t whether solar panels are a good environmental proposition. The real question is whether Bangladesh’s current energy model is still an economically viable one as it becomes more and more reliant on fuel bought in from the international market and then subsequently takes on loans from the EU and the IMF.

What has changed?

Bangladesh’s record on renewables should make us very cautious about the prospect of another policy announcement. The 2008 Renewable Energy Policy set out an ambition to have 10% of electricity coming from renewables by 2020. That target was definitely not met, just as with all the other targets. Subsequent plans have re-affirmed the commitment, whilst implementation has continued to be woeful.

The Renewable Energy Policy 2025 sets a new target of 20% of national electricity demand being met by renewables by 2030 and 30% by 2040. It also provides tax credits to renewable energy producers and creates opportunities for rooftop solar on a range of infrastructure.

Installed capacity and actual generation are not the same thing. XYZ MW of solar capacity will not generate electricity all the time. The amount of electricity it produces will vary depending on the climate (sunlight, weather, equipment performance, etc.) and the number of hours it can actually generate. A target expressed in terms of installed capacity alone can therefore give the impression of progress without in any way demonstrating that the country will in fact be getting the electricity it needs.

Being a youth climate activist, I would much prefer to see the government actually publish a credible, costed pathway to a slightly less ambitious target than keep on going and announcing a bigger target which they simply can’t deliver on without the requisite finance, transmission infrastructure and implementation capacity.

Bangladesh doesn’t need to start its transition by going out and looking for huge areas of land to put utility-scale solar farms on. Some of the most sensible options are already up there in the sky.

CPD reported 4,551 net-metered rooftop solar installations with a total capacity of 213.3 MW. Around 60.4% of the installations were in Dhaka, and 1,531 systems were added in 2025. CPD also found that nearly 98% of the net-metered installations were operational, which indicates that rooftop solar can work when the systems are properly installed and maintained.

Yet 213.3 MW is a very modest amount in the context of a national electricity system with capacity measured in the tens of thousands of MW. The government did see the potential and has the National Rooftop Solar Programme, which initially aimed at 2,000 to 3,000 MW across government, educational and health sector buildings.

The programme is a sensible starting point, but its success will depend on a whole lot more than simply identifying the right roofs. Procurement has to be transparent, the equipment has to meet the technical specifications and there have to be clear arrangements in place for finance, maintenance and monitoring.

There is also a very frustrating contradiction in our current approach. The Bangladesh Solar Home System programme has been instrumental in extending the reach of electricity to communities off the national grid, with an estimated six million systems now in place. CPD’s 2025 survey, however, found that a staggering 47% of those systems were non-functional by that point due to battery degradation and the total absence of a viable upgrade or maintenance pathway.

That experience absolutely warrants attention. Getting access to the technology is important, but it’s equally important that it continues to work years down the line. Funding is the big issue.

There is another facet to this argument which I think warrants more attention. Employment and domestic industrial capacity.

Renewable energy offers opportunities that go well beyond just electricity generation. The development of domestic capability in these areas would allow Bangladesh to capture more of the value of its economy rather than being so dependent on imported equipment and external technical services.

The Government should be actively encouraging local manufacturing where that makes commercial sense, investing in technical education and supporting R&D partnerships between the universities and industry. Localisation has to be about competitiveness and quality, not about protectionism in the purest sense. There has to be a realistic route for domestic manufacturers to grow, to innovate and to achieve international standards.

Just as importantly, the shift must not end up being a massive windfall for the big corporations at the expense of households and small businesses. Affordable credit, community-scale projects and robust consumer protections would all go some way to ensuring the benefits are spread more widely.

For Bangladesh, climate policy and development policy are inextricably linked. The energy transition that reduces emissions must also be one that enhances economic resilience, enables access to technology and creates productive opportunities for the young people of the country.

So, is Bangladesh ready?

My answer as an economics student and youth activist is that Bangladesh has started to get ready for renewables, but has not yet shown the institutional maturity to take it on in any serious way at the long-term scale. We have policy commitments, we have a solar market in place, we have experience with off-grid electrification and there are huge opportunities for rooftop generation. The question is whether we can actually get the financing, regulation, infrastructure and implementation all worked out in a way that would lead to a reliable supply of electricity.

The next phase has to be measured in a different way. Rather than just celebrating the announcements we get, we need to look at how much actual renewable capacity is being commissioned, how much electricity that capacity is actually generating, how much of the investment is actually getting to the viable projects and how effectively public money is being spent. Targets need to be accompanied by annual milestones, transparent progress reports and clear accountability when things aren’t going according to plan.

Above all, Bangladesh must stop treating renewables as some sort of distant environmental dream. It’s a question of economic sovereignty right now.

I don’t think Bangladesh is incapable of making the transition. My worry is that we will keep on recognising the urgency of the problem and then just keep putting it off. Bangladesh doesn’t need another statement now that renewables are the way forward.